Michele Tafoya
Adam Schwarze
Julia Coleman
Tom Weiler
Mike RuohoWinnerMarket analysis
Analysis generated Aug 7, 2026
Michele Tafoya is overwhelming favorite at 96% to win the Minnesota GOP Senate primary on August 11, with recent polling showing her at 48%, a 35-point lead over Royce White at 10%. Adam Schwarze and Tom Weiler trail far behind with single-digit support, with roughly a quarter of voters undecided—but Tafoya's dominance among decided voters and strength with older demographics makes a collapse extremely unlikely in the final hours.
Before Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner ended, the final Polymarket odds were: Michele Tafoya: 100%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
No — this market has ended on Polymarket. PredictMarketCap tracks thousands of active markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun if you're looking for what's live now.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner
Updated 1 month ago
Winner: Michele Tafoyaon Aug 24, 2026
5pp3pp5pp4pp5pp
