What are the current odds for "Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 96.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $231.6K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 96.5% or No shares at 3.4%. The market has $72.6K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketpolitics

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

Updated 6 min ago

The 2026 US Midterm Elections are expected to proceed on schedule for November 3, 2026, with markets pricing this at 95% confidence. Any deviation from this date would be historically unusual for US federal elections.

Current Probability

96.5%+0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$1.04 return per $1

If No wins

$28.99 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.