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If the House member sworn in for CA-49 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of March 21, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Will a Democrat win the House race for CA-49? are: Democratic party: 92%, Republican party: 8%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Will a Democrat win the House race for CA-49? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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