Mary Peltola
Dan Sullivan
Gerald Heikes
Daniel J. Sullivan
Richard GraysonAlaska Senate winner? (Person)
Updated 2h ago
If [outcome] wins the 2026 Alaska Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Market analysis
Analysis generated Sep 7, 2026
Kalshi prices Peltola at 65% despite recent polling showing her leading Sullivan by just 51% to 49%—a notable divergence. Peltola's primary-day lead of 48% to 43% and fundraising advantage ($18M to $12M) have shifted the betting market toward her, but ranked-choice voting and a same-named spoiler candidate (Daniel J. Sullivan at 1% market odds) could yet scramble a race that remains statistically tied by most metrics.
As of October 11, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Alaska Senate winner? (Person) are: Mary Peltola: 72%, Dan Sullivan: 27%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Alaska Senate winner? (Person) is currently listed on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
