Live prediction market odds on the Republican primary
With hundreds of millions in trading volume, the 2028 Republican nomination race is generating enormous interest on prediction markets. Traders are pricing in candidates ranging from the current vice president to governors, senators, and political outsiders. These markets provide a real-time consensus view of the GOP field that updates as the political landscape shifts.
Prediction market odds are live and shift constantly. The markets below show the latest probabilities for each candidate based on real-money trades across Polymarket and Kalshi.
No. The 22nd Amendment limits presidents to two terms. This means the 2028 Republican primary will feature an open race without an incumbent, which historically leads to more competitive and uncertain primaries — reflected in more dispersed prediction market odds.
Prediction markets open years in advance of elections and tend to become more accurate as the race approaches. Early odds reflect name recognition and political positioning, while later odds incorporate polling, debate performances, and primary results.
