Updated 5m ago
Market analysis
Analysis generated Jul 10, 2026
Byron Donalds' 96% market price reflects consolidated Trump endorsement and commanding polling leads—most recent June polling shows him at 54%, 46 points ahead of nearest rival James Fishback at 8%. With over $90 million raised and broad geographic support, Donalds has effectively locked in Florida Republican establishment backing, including endorsements from DeSantis-appointed officials. Late chaos—lawsuits over Fishback's residency, a civil assault claim against Donalds, and pressure to debate—has failed to shift either polls or betting odds in the final weeks before the August 18 primary, confirming market confidence in his consolidation.
As of July 13, 2026, the Polymarket odds for Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner are: Byron Donalds: 96%, James Fishback: 4%, Jay Collins: 1%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner is currently listed on Polymarket. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi & Limitless when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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