Prediction market odds on AI milestones and workforce impact
The question of whether AI will replace human jobs has moved from speculation to tradeable contracts. Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi offer contracts on specific AI milestones — from passing professional exams to achieving human-level performance on benchmarks. These odds provide a probability-weighted timeline for AI capabilities.
Prediction markets offer contracts on specific AI milestones rather than broad "will AI take my job" questions. These include AI passing professional exams (bar exam, medical licensing), achieving benchmarks, and specific capability thresholds. The milestone odds collectively paint a picture of the AI capability timeline.
Prediction markets have active contracts on AGI timelines, with varying definitions of what constitutes AGI. Odds range widely depending on the specific benchmark used. Check the live markets below for the latest probabilities.
While prediction markets don't offer contracts on specific job categories, they do price AI capability milestones (coding, writing, analysis) that map to different professions. Markets where AI passes professional exams are particularly informative.
