Pope Leo XIV
Donald TrumpTime's Person of the Year for 2026
Updated 1h ago
If [outcome] is Time Person of the Year for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Market analysis
Analysis generated Sep 8, 2026
Kalshi traders give Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old mayor of New York City, a commanding 29% edge in the TIME Person of the Year race, more than 50% higher than the second-place Pope Leo XIV at 19%. Mamdani's market surge reflects his stunning political ascent from a fringe Democratic Socialist assemblyman to NYC's first Muslim mayor and his early-term achievements including a rent freeze, reduced crime, and successful management of the summer 2026 World Cup festivities. The gap between Mamdani and trailing contenders Elon Musk (11%) and Donald Trump (10%) suggests traders view his influence on urban policy and cultural representation as the defining story of 2026 so far.
As of September 9, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Time's Person of the Year for 2026 are: Zohran Mamdani: 29%, Pope Leo XIV: 20%, Donald Trump: 11%, Elon Musk: 9%, Victor Glover: 9%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Time's Person of the Year for 2026 is currently listed on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
