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If a model by Alibaba is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of March 19, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Will ChatGPT be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena? are: Claude: 38%, Gemini: 23%, Grok: 11%, Other: 9%, ChatGPT: 9%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Will ChatGPT be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
