What are the current odds for "Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 21.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $72.0K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 21.5% or No shares at 78.5%. The market has $7.5K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 3 months (Jun 30, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

128,437

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,818,333,346

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$584,297,996

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$3,480,992,934

Polymarket$3.08BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$380.07MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$24.19MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

128,437

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,818,333,346

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$584,297,996

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$3,480,992,934

Polymarket$3.08BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$380.07MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$24.19MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Polymarketother

Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?

Updated Today

OpenAI's development roadmap has markets assigning GPT-6 only a 21% chance of launching by June 30, 2026—just 18 months away. The rapid pace of AI progress makes near-term releases uncertain, especially given the company's caution around deploying frontier models responsibly.

Current Probability

21.5%+0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$4.65 return per $1

If No wins

$1.27 return per $1