What are the current odds for "Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 1.7% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $120.6K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 1.7% or No shares at 98.4%. The market has $21.7K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve Ended (Dec 31, 2025). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

127,740

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,762,428,991

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$577,969,177

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$3,417,251,902

Polymarket$3.04BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$356.20MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$24.17MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

127,740

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,762,428,991

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$577,969,177

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$3,417,251,902

Polymarket$3.04BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$356.20MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$24.17MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Polymarketother

Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?

Updated Today

OpenAI's GPT-6 release is given just 2% odds by the deadline of March 31, 2026, suggesting traders expect the model won't arrive for many months or years. This reflects the company's historical slow pace between major version upgrades.

Current Probability

1.7%+0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$60.61 return per $1

If No wins

$1.02 return per $1