What are the current odds for "Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 0.1% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $163.1K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 0.1% or No shares at 100.0%. The market has $200.4K in liquidity.

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Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?

Updated 3 months ago

This market asks whether xAI will publicly release Grok 5 by March 31, 2026. The product must be generally accessible—not in closed beta—and explicitly named Grok 5 or recognized as a successor to Grok 4. Markets currently give public availability a 0% chance.

Current Probability

0.1%+0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$2000.00 return per $1

If No wins

$1.00 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.

Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5 (e.g. Grok 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4 similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.