What are the current odds for "Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 5.9% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $951.8K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 5.9% or No shares at 94.2%. The market has $67.8K in liquidity.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

128,602

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,823,773,597

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$584,675,270

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$3,483,566,764

Polymarket$3.08BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$382.90MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$24.19MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

128,602

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,823,773,597

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$584,675,270

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$3,483,566,764

Polymarket$3.08BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$382.90MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$24.19MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Polymarketother

Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?

Updated Today

Anthropic's next-generation AI model would represent a major step forward in large language model capabilities if released within the window. Markets currently give Claude 5's arrival by March 31, 2026 just an 8% chance, suggesting skepticism about such rapid development timelines.

Current Probability

5.9%-0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$17.09 return per $1

If No wins

$1.06 return per $1