What are the current odds for "Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 16.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $244.4K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 16.0% or No shares at 84.0%. The market has $46.2K in liquidity.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

128,437

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,818,333,346

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$584,297,996

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$3,480,992,934

Polymarket$3.08BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$380.07MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$24.19MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

128,437

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,818,333,346

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$584,297,996

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$3,480,992,934

Polymarket$3.08BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$380.07MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$24.19MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Polymarketother

Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?

Updated Today

Anthropic's Claude AI series has seen rapid iteration, with Claude 4 currently available. Markets currently give Claude 5 a 21% chance of launching by April 2026, reflecting uncertainty around the company's development timeline and competitive pressure from rivals like OpenAI and Google.

Current Probability

16.0%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$6.25 return per $1

If No wins

$1.19 return per $1