What are the current odds for "OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 46.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $281.0K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 46.5% or No shares at 53.5%. The market has $5.8K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketeconomics

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

Updated 4 weeks ago

OpenAI would need to complete an IPO valued at $1 trillion or higher by December 31, 2026, for this market to resolve Yes. Markets currently give this outcome a 47% probability.

Current Probability

46.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$2.15 return per $1

If No wins

$1.87 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.

OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.

Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.

If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.

If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will

The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.