What are the current odds for "Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 10.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $664 in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 10.5% or No shares at 89.5%. The market has $2.9K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketeconomics

Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?

Updated Ended

Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI? is currently trading at 10.5% on Polymarket, with $664 in total trading volume. Track live odds, price history, and compare across prediction market platforms.

Current Probability

10.5%-0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$9.52 return per $1

If No wins

$1.12 return per $1

Compare on Other Platforms

Kalshi

Will the federal government start mining Bitcoin before 2027?

Outcome: Before 2027

8.0%

$17.3K vol

Related Markets

Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc.?

20.5%

$38.7K vol

-0.04% 24h

Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.?

12.0%

$18.8K vol

++0.01% 24h

OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

5.5%

$97.9K vol

Price History

Market Stats

Open Interest$2.9K

24h Volume$15

Total Volume$664

Liquidity$2.9K

Ends9 months

End DateDec 31, 2026

Price Changes

24 hours-0.01%

7 days+0.04%

Trade Now

More Economics Markets

View all economics markets

Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 18?

100.0%·

PM·$344.1K vol

Bitcoin Up or Down on March 18?

0.1%·

PM·$318.5K vol

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2PM ET

0.1%·

PM·$249.0K vol

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3PM ET

0.1%·

PM·$213.3K vol

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12PM ET

0.1%·

PM·$208.8K vol

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11AM ET

100.0%·

PM·$199.7K vol

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET

0.1%·

PM·$191.3K vol

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 17?

100.0%·

PM·$192.2K vol

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 16?

100.0%·

PM·$192.3K vol

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10AM ET

0.1%·

PM·$189.2K vol

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 16?

100.0%·

PM·$194.1K vol

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12AM ET

0.1%·

PM·$181.2K vol