What are the current odds for "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 10.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $85.9K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 10.0% or No shares at 90.0%. The market has $14.1K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarkettech

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

Updated 1 hr ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Currently 10.0% on Polymarket, with $85,869 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

10.0%+0.03%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$10.00 return per $1

If No wins

$1.11 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.