What are the current odds for "Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give Anthropic a 83.0% probability. This market is trading on Polymarket with $218.3K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Anthropic shares at 83.0% or OpenAI shares at 17.0%. The market has $13.3K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 1 years (Dec 31, 2027). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

PolymarketeconomicsMulti-Outcome

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Anthropic

Updated 1 week ago

Markets currently give Anthropic an 83% edge to complete an IPO before OpenAI by December 31, 2027. The market resolves based on official company announcements and credible news sources confirming which company goes public first.

Current Probability

83.0%-0.07%24h

Trade on Polymarket

AnthropicOpenAI

If Anthropic wins

$1.20 return per $1

If OpenAI wins

$5.88 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.

This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.

This market will resolve 50-50 if:
Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.