Minnesota Senate winner?
Updated 1m ago
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Minnesota for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Market analysis
Analysis generated Aug 25, 2026
Kalshi gives Democrat Peggy Flanagan a commanding 91% implied probability versus Republican Michele Tafoya's 10%, reflecting Minnesota's deep Democratic lean and the state's two-decade streak without GOP statewide Senate wins. Polling shows Flanagan leading by 6–7 points in recent surveys, and forecasters rate the race Likely Democratic despite Tafoya's appeal to moderates on issues like government fraud. The 81-point odds gap stands narrower than Flanagan's structural advantage alone might suggest, indicating some real-money acknowledgment of Tafoya's outsider profile and pro-choice Republican positioning in a race where turnout and Trump's national approval could still matter.
As of September 11, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Minnesota Senate winner? are: Peggy Flanagan: 90%, Michele Tafoya: 11%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Minnesota Senate winner? is currently listed on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
