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If Japan has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of March 19, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Which countries will have recessions? are: Germany: 85%, Japan: 42%, United Kingdom: 38%, China: 11%, India: 10%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Which countries will have recessions? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
