Updated Ended
If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of March 19, 2026, the Kalshi odds for When will the next U.S. recession start? are: Q1 2026: 10%, Q4 2025: 7%, Q2 2025: 3%, Q3 2025: 2%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
When will the next U.S. recession start? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
