When will the next US recession start?
Updated 2h ago
If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in [outcome], then the market resolves to Yes.
As of September 11, 2026, the Kalshi odds for When will the next US recession start? are: Q1 2026: 1%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
When will the next US recession start? is currently listed on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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