Polymarket$3.29BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.
Kalshi$404.59MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.
Limitless$27.64MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.
Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q1 2026 be above 10%?
Updated Today
If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q1 2026 is above 7.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of March 18, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q1 2026 be above 10%? are: Above 5%: 94%, Above 7.5%: 92%, Above 10%: 71%, Above 12.5%: 42%, Above 15%: 21%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q1 2026 be above 10%? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
