What are the current odds for "Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 6.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $52.7K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 6.5% or No shares at 93.5%. The market has $11.7K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?

Updated Today

Kim Jong Un's removal from power would constitute a seismic geopolitical shift with unpredictable consequences for the Korean peninsula. Markets currently give this just a 10% chance by December 31, 2026, reflecting the regime's tight control and stability. Any transition would reshape regional dynamics and nuclear negotiations.

Current Probability

6.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$15.38 return per $1

If No wins

$1.07 return per $1