What are the current odds for "Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 2.6% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $2.48M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 2.6% or No shares at 97.4%. The market has $173.1K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 1 weeks (Mar 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

PolymarketotherMulti-Outcome

March 8

Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?

Updated Ended

Supreme leader succession in Iran remains one of the world's most consequential political unknowns; markets give an announcement by March 8, 2026 just a 3% chance, reflecting the opacity of Iranian leadership transitions and the current leader's health status.

Current Probability

2.6%

Trade on Polymarket

March 8Others

If March 8 wins

$38.46 return per $1

If others win

$1.03 return per $1