What are the current odds for "US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 11.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $10.68M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 11.5% or No shares at 88.5%. The market has $629.2K in liquidity.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

122,371

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,586,740,888

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$475,966,484

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,691,719,004

Polymarket$2.32BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$350.67MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.48MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

122,371

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,586,740,888

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$475,966,484

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,691,719,004

Polymarket$2.32BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$350.67MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.48MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Polymarketother

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Updated Today

Tensions between the US and Iran have simmered for decades, punctuated by military strikes and proxy conflicts. Prediction markets currently price a US-Iran ceasefire by March 2025 at just 16% odds, suggesting widespread skepticism about near-term diplomatic breakthroughs despite ongoing negotiations.

Current Probability

11.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$8.70 return per $1

If No wins

$1.13 return per $1