What are the current odds for "US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 68.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $145.8K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 68.0% or No shares at 32.0%. The market has $88.4K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 2 months (May 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?

Updated Today

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain a critical flashpoint in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Markets currently give a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by December 31, 2025, a 71% chance, reflecting cautious optimism about diplomatic resolution despite ongoing regional instability and military posturing.

Current Probability

68.0%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$1.47 return per $1

If No wins

$3.13 return per $1