What are the current odds for "Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 14.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $27.4K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 14.5% or No shares at 85.5%. The market has $13.7K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarkettech

Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?

Updated 3 weeks ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Currently 14.5% on Polymarket, with $27,410 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

14.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$6.90 return per $1

If No wins

$1.17 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.

A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.