What are the current odds for "Fed rate hike in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 53.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $4.25M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Fed rate hike in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 53.5% or No shares at 46.5%. The market has $149.2K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 4 months (Dec 9, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketeconomics

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Updated 1 min ago

Markets assess a 49% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise the upper bound of the federal funds rate at least once between January and December 2026. Resolution depends on official Fed announcements from their December meeting or credible reporting.

Current Probability

53.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$1.87 return per $1

If No wins

$2.15 return per $1

↓ Compare across platforms More economics markets →Trending markets →

Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

View full rules