Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

As of March 20, 2026, the Polymarket odds for Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair are: Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%: 76%, Kevin Warsh & Rate ≤ 2.5%: 10%, Other: 5%, Rick Rieder & Rate ≤ 2.5%: 2%, Rick Rieder & Rate > 2.5%: 1%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair is currently available on Polymarket. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.

Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.