What are the current odds for "Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 15.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $65.1K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 15.5% or No shares at 84.5%. The market has $8.7K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketeconomics

Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

Updated 3 weeks ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Currently 15.5% on Polymarket, with $65,084 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

15.5%-0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$6.45 return per $1

If No wins

$1.18 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.

A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – or the appointment of a new federal government.

If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.

If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”

The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.