Updated Today
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions carry enormous weight for borrowing costs, savings rates, and economic growth across the U.S. Markets currently give the Fed's lower bound reaching 3.0% or lower a 55% chance by the end of 2026, reflecting uncertainty about inflation trajectories and monetary policy ahead.
Current Probability
If Yes wins
$2.60 return per $1
If No wins
$1.63 return per $1
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KalshiWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting?
Outcome: Above 3.50%
KalshiWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting?
Outcome: Above 3.75%
KalshiWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
Outcome: Above 3.50%
KalshiWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Apr 29, 2026 meeting?
Outcome: Above 3.75%
KalshiWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?
Outcome: Above 3.25%
KalshiWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?
Outcome: Above 3.75%
