Updated Today
The Federal Reserve faces pressure to balance inflation control with economic growth, with markets giving only a 20% chance the Fed cuts rates to 2.5% or lower by year-end 2026. Lower rates would dramatically reshape mortgage costs, savings returns, and investment strategies for millions.
Current Probability
If Yes wins
$6.06 return per $1
If No wins
$1.20 return per $1
Price Changes
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 18?
PM·$344.1K volBitcoin Up or Down on March 18?
PM·$318.5K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2PM ET
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PM·$199.7K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET
PM·$191.3K volS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 17?
PM·$192.2K volS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 16?
PM·$192.3K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10AM ET
PM·$189.2K volS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 16?
PM·$194.1K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12AM ET
PM·$181.2K vol
KalshiWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting?
Outcome: Above 3.50%
KalshiWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting?
Outcome: Above 3.75%
KalshiWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
Outcome: Above 3.50%
KalshiWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Apr 29, 2026 meeting?
Outcome: Above 3.75%
KalshiWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?
Outcome: Above 3.25%
KalshiWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?
Outcome: Above 3.75%
