Cut 25bpsCut >25bpsFed decision in Sep 2026?
Updated 1m ago
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of >25bps on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Market analysis
Analysis generated Sep 8, 2026
Kalshi prices a 54% chance of a 25bps hike versus 46% for a hold—a coin flip tilted slightly hawkish. The market's narrow split reflects conflicting signals: strong August jobs data (162,000 added) and persistent inflation pushed hike odds higher, but Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's September 3 comments that current rates may already be sufficient to cool inflation pulled odds back toward a hold. Upcoming CPI data due before the September 16 decision will likely be the decisive catalyst.
As of September 9, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Fed decision in Sep 2026? are: Hike 25bps: 56%, Fed maintains rate: 44%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Fed decision in Sep 2026? is currently listed on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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