Updated Today
The Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate shapes borrowing costs across the entire economy, affecting mortgages, credit cards, and business investment. Markets currently give only a 31% chance the Fed cuts rates to 2.75% or lower before 2027, suggesting traders expect persistent inflation concerns or slower rate cuts than some predict.
Current Probability
If Yes wins
$3.23 return per $1
If No wins
$1.45 return per $1
Price Changes
KalshiWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting?
Outcome: Above 3.50%
KalshiWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting?
Outcome: Above 3.75%
KalshiWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
Outcome: Above 3.50%
KalshiWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Apr 29, 2026 meeting?
Outcome: Above 3.75%
KalshiWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?
Outcome: Above 3.25%
KalshiWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?
Outcome: Above 3.75%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 18?
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