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If the U.S. federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP for fiscal year 2026, as reported in the U.S. Treasury / Office of Management and Budget Joint Statement on Budget Results for Fiscal Year 2026, is below 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of March 19, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Will U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP for FY2026 be below 5%? are: Below 5%: 14%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Will U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP for FY2026 be below 5%? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
