What $79.1M in prediction market bets says about the AI race — model releases, IPOs, AGI, and more.
Markets bet on which company will have the top-ranked AI model at each deadline. Prices reflect the probability each contender comes out on top.
When will the next generation of AI models drop? Prediction markets price the probability of each release deadline.
Will OpenAI go public? Who gets acquired? Markets price the odds of major AI business moves.
Macro bets on tech layoffs, AI regulation, NVIDIA's dominance, and whether AI is in a bubble.
Tesla Optimus, robotaxis, and the Musk empire — prediction markets on the physical AI frontier.
Polymarket and Kalshi both offer markets on which company will have the best AI model, when new models like GPT-6 and Claude 5 will be released, and whether companies like OpenAI will IPO. These markets aggregate millions of dollars in bets to produce real-time probability estimates.
Based on current prediction market prices, Anthropic's Claude is favored as the best AI model for March 2026. The market shows more uncertainty for later in the year, with Google and OpenAI as the main challengers.
Prediction markets currently show GPT-5.5 as very likely by mid-2026, while GPT-6 has a notable chance of launching before GTA VI (July 2026). Check the Model Release Timeline section for the latest probability estimates.
Prediction markets show meaningful probability of an OpenAI IPO by end of 2026, with bets on whether the company would reach a $1 trillion market cap. See the IPO & Acquisitions section for current odds.
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31: NVIDIA
$83K volume