What $78.4M in prediction market bets across 388 markets says about the AI race — model releases, IPOs, AGI, and more.
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Polymarket and Kalshi both offer markets on which company will have the best AI model, when new models like GPT-6 and Claude 5 will be released, and whether companies like OpenAI will IPO. These markets aggregate millions of dollars in bets to produce real-time probability estimates.
Based on current prediction market prices, Anthropic's Claude is favored as the best AI model for March 2026. The market shows more uncertainty for later in the year, with Google and OpenAI as the main challengers.
Prediction markets currently show GPT-5.5 as very likely by mid-2026, while GPT-6 has a notable chance of launching before GTA VI (July 2026). Check the Model Release Timeline section for the latest probability estimates.
Prediction markets show meaningful probability of an OpenAI IPO by end of 2026, with bets on whether the company would reach a $1 trillion market cap. See the IPO & Acquisitions section for current odds.
Markets bet on which company will have the top-ranked AI model at each deadline. Prices reflect the probability each contender comes out on top.
When will the next generation of AI models drop? Prediction markets price the probability of each release deadline.
Will OpenAI go public? Who gets acquired? Markets price the odds of major AI business moves.
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T
$3.3M volume↑0.3ppSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T
$2.5M volume
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027
$2.4M volumeSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T
$2.3M volume↓0.5ppSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T
$2.1M volume↑0.2ppSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T
$1.9M volume↓0.3ppSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T
$1.2M volume↓0.1pp
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027
$1.2M volumeSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T
$1.1M volumeSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T
$1.1M volumeWill SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day
$1.1M volume↓0.2pp
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T
$1.0M volume
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027
$975K volumeSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T
$946K volumeWill OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026
$834K volumeSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T
$798K volumeSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T
$746K volumeSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T
$706K volume
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027
$697K volume
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026
$658K volumeWill OpenAI be acquired before 2027
$649K volumeWill SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day
$609K volumeSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T
$558K volume
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026
$557K volume
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026
$532K volumeWill SpaceX IPO by March 31, 2026
$508K volume
Databricks IPO before 2027
$476K volumeWill SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day
$456K volume↑0.5ppWill OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026
$443K volumeOpenAI IPO before 2027
$424K volumeMacro bets on tech layoffs, AI regulation, NVIDIA's dominance, and whether AI is in a bubble.
More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
$31.4M volume
AI bubble burst in 2026
$2.3M volume
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31
$1.5M volumeWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31
$840K volumeAI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026
$385K volumeAI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2025
$203K volumeWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31
$134K volumeAI regulation by 2027
$50K volume
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026
$25K volumeWill NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31
$23K volumeTesla Optimus, robotaxis, and the Musk empire — prediction markets on the physical AI frontier.
$520.4K traded · updated 19d ago
