What are the current odds for "Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 0.1% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $216.9K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 0.1% or No shares at 100.0%. The market has $213.1K in liquidity.

Polymarketother

Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?

Updated 4 months ago

Anthropic's Claude 5 model must become publicly available by March 15, 2026 for this market to resolve Yes. Currently, traders assign it just 0% probability of meeting that timeline.

Current Probability

0.1%-0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$2000.00 return per $1

If No wins

$1.00 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.

Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.