What are the current odds for "Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 9.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $126.6K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 9.5% or No shares at 90.5%. The market has $12.8K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 3 months (Jun 30, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?

Updated Today

A potential Tesla-SpaceX merger represents one of the most ambitious corporate combinations in recent memory, with markets giving it only a 10% chance of announcement by June 30, 2026. Elon Musk's ownership of both complicates regulatory and structural feasibility.

Current Probability

9.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$10.53 return per $1

If No wins

$1.10 return per $1