What are the current odds for "US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?"?

As of April 2026, prediction markets give this a 100.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $397.8K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 100.0% or No shares at 0.0%. The market has $202.7K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 1 months (May 15, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?

Updated Ended

Markets are pricing a US-Iran ceasefire by May 15, 2026 at 100%, reflecting either a resolved conflict or consensus that peace terms are certain to be reached by the deadline.

Current Probability

100.0%+0.58%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$1.00 return per $1

If No wins

$2000.00 return per $1