What are the current odds for "US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 24.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $300.8K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 24.5% or No shares at 75.5%. The market has $75.1K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 1 weeks (Apr 7, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Updated Today

Escalating tensions between the US and Iran dominate geopolitical markets, with a ceasefire by April 7 given just 28% odds. The narrow window reflects skepticism about rapid diplomatic breakthroughs amid broader regional instability.

Current Probability

24.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$4.08 return per $1

If No wins

$1.32 return per $1