What are the current odds for "US forces enter Iran by April 30?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 56.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $437.8K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "US forces enter Iran by April 30?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 56.5% or No shares at 43.5%. The market has $152.1K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 1 months (Apr 30, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Updated Today

With geopolitical tensions high, prediction markets currently give US military intervention in Iran a 55% chance by April 30, 2026. This outcome would represent a major escalation in Middle East conflict, potentially triggering regional war and global economic disruption. The market reflects significant uncertainty about how current diplomatic and military dynamics will unfold over the next 16 months.

Current Probability

56.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$1.77 return per $1

If No wins

$2.30 return per $1