What are the current odds for "Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 16.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $6.67M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 16.5% or No shares at 83.5%. The market has $539.3K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 1 months (Apr 30, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

122,371

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,586,740,888

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$475,966,484

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,691,719,004

Polymarket$2.32BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$350.67MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.48MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

122,371

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,586,740,888

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$475,966,484

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,691,719,004

Polymarket$2.32BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$350.67MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.48MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Polymarketother

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Updated Today

Iran's government faces mounting pressure from internal dissent, economic hardship, and international isolation, but regime change remains extraordinarily difficult. Prediction markets currently assess a 17% probability the Iranian regime falls by April 2026—a low bar reflecting how consolidated state control remains despite ongoing tensions.

Current Probability

16.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$6.06 return per $1

If No wins

$1.20 return per $1