What are the current odds for "US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 0.1% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $11.68M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 0.1% or No shares at 100.0%. The market has $999.5K in liquidity.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

122,371

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,586,740,888

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$475,966,484

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,691,719,004

Polymarket$2.32BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$350.67MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.48MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

122,371

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,586,740,888

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$475,966,484

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,691,719,004

Polymarket$2.32BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$350.67MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.48MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Polymarketother

US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?

Updated Ended

A ceasefire between the US and Iran by March 15 carries 0% probability on prediction markets, reflecting the region's current escalation trajectory and lack of active diplomatic negotiations. Deep structural tensions and recent military exchanges make near-term de-escalation appear virtually impossible to traders.

Current Probability

0.1%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$2000.00 return per $1

If No wins

$1.00 return per $1