What are the current odds for "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 54.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $595.2K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 54.5% or No shares at 45.5%. The market has $63.1K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 1 months (May 15, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

122,371

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,586,740,888

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$475,966,484

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,691,719,004

Polymarket$2.32BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$350.67MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.48MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

122,371

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,586,740,888

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$475,966,484

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,691,719,004

Polymarket$2.32BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$350.67MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.48MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Polymarketsports

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?

Updated Today

With regional tensions remaining high, prediction markets currently assess a 64% probability that Iran-Israel/US hostilities will de-escalate by mid-May 2026. The outcome hinges on diplomatic efforts, potential ceasefire agreements, and how regional powers navigate proxy conflicts and nuclear negotiations.

Current Probability

54.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$1.83 return per $1

If No wins

$2.20 return per $1