What are the current odds for "Will Sam Raskin win the 2026 Fields Medal?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 22.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $2.4K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Sam Raskin win the 2026 Fields Medal?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 22.0% or No shares at 78.0%. The market has $2.4K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 2 weeks (Jul 30, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will Sam Raskin win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Updated 3 months ago

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. Currently 22.0% on Polymarket, with $2,447 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

22.0%+0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$4.55 return per $1

If No wins

$1.28 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.

If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

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Listed on Polymarket Jan 6, 2026 · Resolves Jul 30, 2026