Updated Today
WTI crude oil hitting $170 per barrel in April 2026 carries only a 6% probability according to traders, reflecting expectations of stable or declining energy prices. Such a spike would require major supply disruptions or significant geopolitical escalation in oil-producing regions.
Current Probability
If Yes wins
$57.14 return per $1
If No wins
$1.02 return per $1
Price Changes
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
PM·$225.68M volUS x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
PM·$60.34M volWill Iran strike Israel on March 6?
PM·$19.10M volUS x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
PM·$24.43M volWill Iran strike Israel on March 10?
PM·$23.08M volUS x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
PM·$17.55M volUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
PM·$44.38M volUS x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
PM·$7.38M volUS forces enter Iran by December 31?
PM·$19.77M volWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
PM·$24.55M volSpread: Warriors (-14.5)
PM·$2.04M volWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
PM·$6.14M vol
