What are the current odds for "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 22.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $45.39M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 22.5% or No shares at 77.5%. The market has $615.0K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketother

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Updated 1 min ago

Markets currently assess a 16% probability that the U.S. commences a military offensive to establish control over Iranian territory by December 31, 2026. The market distinguishes between territory de facto controlled as of November 4, 2025, and any new territorial establishment.

Current Probability

22.5%-0.07%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$4.44 return per $1

If No wins

$1.29 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.