What are the current odds for "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 62.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $1.30M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 62.5% or No shares at 37.5%. The market has $85.2K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Updated Today

Geopolitical tensions and ongoing sanctions dominate this high-stakes prediction with markets currently pricing an Iran invasion at 46% by year-end 2026. Military escalation remains unpredictable, but regional stability and diplomatic channels keep probability below 50-50 despite rhetoric.

Current Probability

62.5%-0.03%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$1.60 return per $1

If No wins

$2.67 return per $1