Updated Today
A potential U.S.-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 10, 2026, carries just a 5% probability according to markets, reflecting deep skepticism about near-term negotiations between the two nations. The $122K in trading volume underscores geopolitical uncertainty as a major betting theme.
Current Probability
If Yes wins
$105.26 return per $1
If No wins
$1.01 return per $1
Price Changes
KalshiWill Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their April 2026 meeting?
Outcome: Maintains rate
KalshiWill the Central Bank of Brazil Hike more than 50bp at the April Monetary Policy Meeting?
Outcome: Hike more than 50bp
KalshiWill the Central Bank of Brazil Maintain current rate at the April Monetary Policy Meeting?
Outcome: Maintain current rate
KalshiWill the European Central Bank Maintain current rate at the April ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting?
Outcome: Maintain current rate
KalshiWill the Bank of Japan hike 25bps at the April 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?
Outcome: Hike 25bps
KalshiWill the Central Bank of Brazil Cut 50 basis points at the April Monetary Policy Meeting?
Outcome: Cut 50 basis points
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
PM·$267.54M volUS x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
PM·$172.21M volWill Iran strike Israel on March 6?
PM·$19.10M volUS x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
PM·$24.43M volWill Iran strike Israel on March 10?
PM·$23.08M volUS x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
PM·$17.55M volUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
PM·$44.38M volUS x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
PM·$7.38M vol76ers vs. Pacers
PM·$1.84M volUS x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
PM·$11.68M volWill Iran strike Israel on March 4?
PM·$6.38M volSpread: Hawks (-6.5)
PM·$1.17M vol