The Oil Price Probability Curve
The most striking dataset isn't a single market — it's the full set of crude oil threshold markets on Polymarket. Together, they reveal the market's implied probability distribution for where oil prices are heading by end of March. And the shape of that distribution tells a nuanced story about how traders are pricing supply disruption risk.
| Oil Price Threshold | Probability | Peak (10 days) | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $85/bbl | 100% | 100% | $5.8M | |
| $90/bbl | 100% | 100% | $1.8M | |
| $95/bbl | 100% | 100% | $2.3M | |
| $100/bbl | 77% | 99% | $7.2M | |
| $105/bbl | 68% | — | $2.0M | |
| $110/bbl | 50% | 93% | $3.6M | |
| $120/bbl | 28% | 84% | $3.6M | |
| $130/bbl | 18% | — | $1.5M | |
| $140/bbl | 10% | — | $1.2M | |
| $150/bbl | 7% | 37% | $5.2M | |
| $180/bbl | 2% | 9% | $2.4M | |
| $200/bbl | 1% | 9% | $5.8M |
The key insight: Oil at $110 is a coin flip (50%). But the tail risk has collapsed — $150 oil was at 37% last week and is now at 7%. $200 oil peaked at 9% and is now 1%. Traders initially priced in a severe supply shock scenario (Hormuz closure, sustained Iranian counterstrikes on Gulf oil facilities) but have since dialed that risk way down. The market is saying: oil will be expensive, but not catastrophically so.
The $120 threshold saw the most dramatic swing: it peaked at 84% probability before falling to 28% today. That 56-percentage-point collapse over 10 days represents a massive repricing of the war's economic impact.
Deep dive: The Anatomy of a War Premium — hour-by-hour data showing how each major event (Hormuz closure, Russia waiver, selective ship passage) reshaped the full oil probability curve in real time.
Live data: Track all oil prediction markets in real time on the Oil Markets Dashboard.
Regime Change: The Market Is Skeptical
Despite the stated US goal of “inducing regime change,” prediction markets are increasingly bearish on it happening quickly. Every regime change market has declined over the past 10 days, with the $36M “regime fall by March 31” contract dropping from 13% to 3%.
Note the timeline structure: March 31 is at 3%, April 30 at 13%, June 30 at 27%, before 2027 at 39%. The market is saying regime change is possible but not fast — and the longer the timeline, the higher the probability. This is consistent with a view that airstrikes alone won't topple the regime, but sustained pressure might.
Live regime change markets
Ceasefire: Don't Hold Your Breath
The ceasefire markets tell a clear story: this war isn't ending soon. Ceasefire by March 15 peaked at 18% before resolving to 0%. March 31 ceasefire has fallen from 27% to 14%. Even April 30 — two months out — is only at 41%.
Interestingly, the ceasefire markets saw brief spikes (March 15 reached 18%, March 31 reached 45%) before collapsing. These spikes likely correspond to diplomatic signals or rumors that the market quickly dismissed as the military campaign continued.
Escalation Risk: Ground Invasion Unlikely, But Not Impossible
“US forces enter Iran by March 31” is one of the most volatile markets — it peaked at 55% before falling to 24%. The market swung 33 percentage points in 10 days, reflecting genuine uncertainty about escalation.
The coalition question: “Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran?” dropped from 19% to 5%, and “Will another country strike Iran?” fell from 50% to 17%. The market has largely concluded this remains a US-Israel operation without broader coalition involvement. Meanwhile, formal war declaration sits at a persistent 1% — traders expect continued operations without congressional authorization.
Iranian Retaliation: Confirmed and Priced
The retaliation markets confirm what's already happened: Iran struck Israel on March 4 and again on March 10 (both resolved at 100%). The Strait of Hormuz closure market is also at 100%, confirming at least a partial blockade has occurred. These resolved contracts represent over $50M in trading volume.
What the Money Is Saying
Taken together, $250M+ in prediction market volume paints a coherent picture of how traders — putting real money on the line — expect this conflict to unfold:
- The war continues through March and likely beyond. Ceasefire by March 31 is at 14%. Even April 30 ceasefire is below 50%. Traders expect sustained military operations.
- Regime change is possible but slow. The declining trajectory of regime change markets (from 13% to 3% for March, with longer timelines holding higher) suggests airstrikes alone won't be decisive. The market prices a ~40% chance of regime change before 2027.
- Oil will be expensive but not catastrophic. The implied distribution centers around $100–$110/bbl. The tail risk of $150+ oil has largely been priced out, suggesting traders believe the Hormuz disruption will be limited or that alternative supply routes will compensate.
- Ground invasion is unlikely. Peaked at 55% but now at 24%, the ground forces market suggests the campaign will remain primarily aerial.
- This stays US-Israel. Coalition involvement has been priced down to single digits. NATO expansion of the conflict is not what the market expects.
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Methodology
This analysis covers 40+ prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi related to the 2026 Iran conflict, oil prices, and associated geopolitical events. Price data spans March 7–17, 2026 (PredictMarketCap began tracking these markets on March 7). “First price” refers to the earliest recorded price in our dataset, not the market's opening price. Volume figures represent total all-time volume traded per contract. All probabilities represent real-money market prices, not editorial predictions. Data sourced from platform APIs and updated continuously.
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All markets in this analysis update in real time on PredictMarketCap.