What are the current odds for "Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 5.1% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $3.89M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 5.1% or No shares at 95.0%. The market has $50.8K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 2 weeks (Mar 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

122,371

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,586,740,888

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$475,966,484

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,691,719,004

Polymarket$2.32BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$350.67MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.48MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Total Active Markets

Count of all non-resolved markets currently tracked across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless.

122,371

Total Volume

Lifetime trading volume across all platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi report volume directly; Limitless volume is cumulative USDC traded.

$5,586,740,888

24h Volume

24-hour trading volume. Polymarket and Kalshi report this directly. Limitless does not break out 24h volume separately, so it is not included.

$475,966,484

Total Open Interest

Polymarket: sum of pool liquidity. Kalshi: open interest (contracts outstanding). Limitless: uses total volume as a proxy — no separate OI metric is available.

$2,691,719,004

Polymarket$2.32BOIOpen interest: sum of pool liquidity across all active markets, reported by the Polymarket API.

Kalshi$350.67MOIOpen interest: total contracts outstanding across all active markets, reported by the Kalshi API.

Limitless$18.48MOIOpen interest: estimated from total volume traded (USDC). Limitless does not report a separate OI metric.

Polymarketother

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?

Updated Today

Escalating regional tensions keep Western military intervention in Iran a live possibility through March 2026. Markets assign just an 8% probability that France, the UK, or Germany will conduct strikes, reflecting diplomatic complexity and the high threshold required for such action.

Current Probability

5.1%-0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$19.80 return per $1

If No wins

$1.05 return per $1